CWS
32%
@
March 30, 2026
MIA
68%
ML
MIA ML (-134) — 68% win, +11.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Davis Martin
vs
MIA
Chris Paddack
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 31.9% | 68.1% |
| Simulation only | 42.5% | 57.5% |
| Elo ratings | 21.4% | 78.6% |
| Market (implied) | 44.4% | 55.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.2
MIA avg runs
4.5
Avg total
8.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = MIA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 7.2% | 11.1% | 13.8% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.1% | 1.4% |
| MIA | 5.4% | 9.4% | 12.6% | 13.5% | 13.7% | 11.9% | 10.1% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 3.5% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Munetaka Murakami
- Miguel Vargas
- Colson Montgomery
- Austin Hays
- Andrew Benintendi
- Everson Pereira
- Edgar Quero
- Luisangel Acuña
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Xavier Edwards
- Agustín Ramírez
- Liam Hicks
- Otto Lopez
- Owen Caissie
- Griffin Conine
- Connor Norby
- Graham Pauley
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1370
MIA: 1572
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +116 | -134 |
| Bovada | +117 | -140 |
| BetMGM | +110 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |
Model Analysis
MIA is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Chris Paddack toes the rubber against Davis Martin. MIA holds a commanding 202-point Elo edge.