DET
49%
@
March 30, 2026
ARI
51%
Pitching Matchup
DET
Justin Verlander
vs
ARI
Mike Soroka
Win Probability
| Source | DET | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.5% | 50.5% |
| Simulation only | 44.6% | 55.4% |
| Elo ratings | 54.4% | 45.6% |
| Market (implied) | 48.3% | 51.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DET avg runs
4.5
ARI avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = DET wins, Positive = ARI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 6.4% | 10.4% | 13.0% | 13.4% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 9.4% | 7.0% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| ARI | 5.5% | 9.4% | 12.3% | 13.6% | 13.6% | 11.9% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
DET
- Kerry Carpenter
- Gleyber Torres
- Colt Keith
- Riley Greene
- Spencer Torkelson
- Kevin McGonigle
- Dillon Dingler
- Parker Meadows
- Javier Bรกez
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Gabriel Moreno
- Pavin Smith
- Nolan Arenado
- Carlos Santana
- Alek Thomas
- Jordan Lawlar
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
DET: 1534
ARI: 1479
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | DET | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
| Bovada | -102 | -118 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -118 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |