NYM
44%
@
March 30, 2026
STL
56%
ML
STL ML (+130) — 56% win, +8.8% edge
Pitching Matchup
NYM
Clay Holmes
vs
STL
Kyle Leahy
Win Probability
| Source | NYM | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| Simulation only | 54.5% | 45.5% |
| Elo ratings | 34.4% | 65.6% |
| Market (implied) | 57.9% | 42.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYM avg runs
5.3
STL avg runs
4.3
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYM wins, Positive = STL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 4.1% | 7.4% | 10.3% | 11.7% | 12.5% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 7.1% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.7% |
| STL | 6.4% | 10.2% | 13.4% | 13.9% | 13.4% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 7.8% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 2.1% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Juan Soto
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Brett Baty
- Marcus Semien
- Carson Benge
- Francisco Alvarez
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Masyn Winn
- Nolan Gorman
- Jordan Walker
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.91
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
82°F
Wind: 16 mph in
Elo Ratings
NYM: 1457
STL: 1546
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYM | STL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -148 | +126 |
| Bovada | -149 | +125 |
| BetMGM | -150 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -156 | +129 |
| Caesars | -155 | +130 |
Model Analysis
STL is getting plus-money at +130 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Kyle Leahy keeps STL competitive on the mound against Clay Holmes. Wind blowing in — pitchers' day.