SFG
43%
@
March 30, 2026
SDP
57%
Pitching Matchup
SFG
Landen Roupp
vs
SDP
Walker Buehler
Win Probability
| Source | SFG | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.9% | 57.1% |
| Simulation only | 45.7% | 54.3% |
| Elo ratings | 40.0% | 60.0% |
| Market (implied) | 48.3% | 51.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SFG avg runs
4.9
SDP avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SFG wins, Positive = SDP wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 4.9% | 9.2% | 11.5% | 13.0% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 9.9% | 7.9% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 1.8% |
| SDP | 4.5% | 8.0% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 12.7% | 13.1% | 10.3% | 8.0% | 6.2% | 4.1% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SFG
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Matt Chapman
- Luis Arraez
- Rafael Devers
- Heliot Ramos
- Willy Adames
- Harrison Bader
- Patrick Bailey
- Casey Schmitt
SDP
- Jake Cronenworth
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Manny Machado
- Jackson Merrill
- Xander Bogaerts
- Gavin Sheets
- Ramón Laureano
- Nick Castellanos
- Freddy Fermin
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.93
HR: 1.05
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Elo Ratings
SFG: 1441
SDP: 1487
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SFG | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +100 | -118 |
| Bovada | -101 | -119 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -118 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |