TEX
49%
@
March 30, 2026
BAL
51%
Pitching Matchup
TEX
Jack Leiter
vs
BAL
Chris Bassitt
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Simulation only | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| Elo ratings | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Market (implied) | 46.7% | 53.3% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
5.3
BAL avg runs
4.7
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 3.8% | 7.1% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 12.1% | 12.0% | 10.4% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.2% | 3.8% | 2.5% |
| BAL | 4.7% | 9.0% | 11.5% | 13.3% | 13.6% | 12.9% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 5.7% | 4.3% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Josh Smith
- Josh Jung
- Evan Carter
- Danny Jansen
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Pete Alonso
- Adley Rutschman
- Samuel Basallo
- Tyler O'Neill
- Colton Cowser
- Coby Mayo
- Jeremiah Jackson
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.16
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
71°F
Wind: 10 mph out
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1533
BAL: 1524
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +106 | -124 |
| Bovada | +105 | -125 |
| BetMGM | +105 | -125 |
| DraftKings | +104 | -126 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |