Athletics
39%
@
March 31, 2026
ATL
61%
Pitching Matchup
Athletics
Aaron Civale
vs
ATL
José Suarez
Win Probability
| Source | Athletics | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| Simulation only | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Elo ratings | 30.7% | 69.3% |
| Market (implied) | 41.8% | 58.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Athletics avg runs
5.1
ATL avg runs
5.0
Avg total
10.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = Athletics wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 3.8% | 8.2% | 11.1% | 12.6% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 10.5% | 8.9% | 6.7% | 4.7% | 3.5% | 2.1% |
| ATL | 4.4% | 8.1% | 10.9% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 10.2% | 8.2% | 6.5% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 2.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
Athletics
- Shea Langeliers
- Nick Kurtz
- Brent Rooker
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Jacob Wilson
- Max Muncy
- Darell Hernaiz
- Austin Wynns
- Denzel Clarke
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Ozzie Albies
- Michael Harris II
- Dominic Smith
- Jorge Mateo
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
78°F
Wind: 5 mph in
Elo Ratings
Athletics: 1449
ATL: 1566
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | Athletics | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +124 | -146 |
| Bovada | +132 | -158 |
| BetMGM | +135 | -160 |
| DraftKings | +135 | -163 |
| Caesars | +135 | -160 |