BOS
50%
@
March 31, 2026
HOU
50%
ML
BOS ML (+134) — 50% win, +6.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
BOS
Brayan Bello
vs
HOU
Hunter Brown
Win Probability
| Source | BOS | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.3% | 49.7% |
| Simulation only | 47.8% | 52.2% |
| Elo ratings | 52.8% | 47.2% |
| Market (implied) | 41.9% | 58.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BOS avg runs
5.0
HOU avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BOS wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 4.5% | 7.9% | 11.9% | 12.2% | 12.8% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 8.6% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| HOU | 4.8% | 8.4% | 11.4% | 12.9% | 13.9% | 12.6% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.3% | 2.7% | 2.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Trevor Story
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Caleb Durbin
- Marcelo Mayer
- Carlos Narváez
- Ceddanne Rafaela
HOU
- Jeremy Peña
- Yordan Alvarez
- Jose Altuve
- Carlos Correa
- Joey Loperfido
- Christian Walker
- Cam Smith
- Yainer Diaz
- Jake Meyers
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
BOS: 1500
HOU: 1457
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BOS | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +134 | -158 |
| Bovada | +126 | -150 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |
Model Analysis
The market has BOS as a +134 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Brayan Bello keeps BOS competitive on the mound against Hunter Brown. The sim projects BOS to plate 5.0 runs — expect some fireworks.