CWS
34%
@
March 31, 2026
MIA
66%
ML
MIA ML (-149) — 66% win, +7.6% edge
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Erick Fedde
vs
MIA
Janson Junk
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 33.6% | 66.4% |
| Simulation only | 42.6% | 57.4% |
| Elo ratings | 24.6% | 75.4% |
| Market (implied) | 42.1% | 57.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.2
MIA avg runs
4.5
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = MIA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 7.4% | 11.2% | 13.9% | 13.9% | 13.1% | 11.0% | 9.5% | 6.4% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 2.0% | 1.3% |
| MIA | 5.5% | 9.7% | 11.9% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 12.4% | 9.1% | 7.7% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Munetaka Murakami
- Miguel Vargas
- Colson Montgomery
- Austin Hays
- Andrew Benintendi
- Everson Pereira
- Edgar Quero
- Luisangel Acuña
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Xavier Edwards
- Agustín Ramírez
- Liam Hicks
- Otto Lopez
- Owen Caissie
- Connor Norby
- Griffin Conine
- Graham Pauley
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1386
MIA: 1556
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +128 | -152 |
| Bovada | +128 | -153 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |
Model Analysis
MIA is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Janson Junk toes the rubber against Erick Fedde. MIA holds a commanding 170-point Elo edge.