NYM
46%
@
March 31, 2026
STL
54%
ML
STL ML (+140) — 54% win, +8.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
NYM
Kodai Senga
vs
STL
Andre Pallante
Win Probability
| Source | NYM | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Simulation only | 54.7% | 45.3% |
| Elo ratings | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| Market (implied) | 59.3% | 40.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYM avg runs
5.2
STL avg runs
4.3
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYM wins, Positive = STL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 3.7% | 7.8% | 10.4% | 12.3% | 12.1% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 8.8% | 7.0% | 4.8% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| STL | 6.4% | 10.6% | 13.6% | 14.2% | 13.7% | 11.5% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 1.9% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Juan Soto
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Brett Baty
- Marcus Semien
- Carson Benge
- Francisco Alvarez
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Masyn Winn
- Nolan Gorman
- Jordan Walker
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.91
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
82°F
Wind: 8 mph in
Elo Ratings
NYM: 1470
STL: 1532
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYM | STL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -158 | +134 |
| Bovada | -155 | +130 |
| BetMGM | -170 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -163 | +135 |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 |
Model Analysis
The market has STL as a +140 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Andre Pallante keeps STL competitive on the mound against Kodai Senga. STL holds a commanding 62-point Elo edge.