PIT
42%
@
March 31, 2026
CIN
58%
ML
CIN ML (-105) — 58% win, +6.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
PIT
Bubba Chandler
vs
CIN
Brandon Williamson
Win Probability
| Source | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.0% | 58.0% |
| Simulation only | 48.9% | 51.1% |
| Elo ratings | 35.0% | 65.0% |
| Market (implied) | 50.3% | 49.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PIT avg runs
5.6
CIN avg runs
5.2
Avg total
10.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PIT wins, Positive = CIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 3.5% | 6.9% | 9.3% | 11.4% | 11.6% | 11.6% | 11.2% | 8.7% | 7.3% | 5.5% | 4.3% | 2.9% |
| CIN | 3.7% | 7.6% | 10.3% | 11.9% | 13.0% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.8% | 6.5% | 5.0% | 3.7% | 2.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PIT
- Jared Triolo
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Bryan Reynolds
- Marcell Ozuna
- Nick Gonzales
- Brandon Lowe
- Nick Yorke
- Joey Bart
- Jake Mangum
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Will Benson
- Tyler Stephenson
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.33
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
80°F
Wind: 16 mph in
Elo Ratings
PIT: 1396
CIN: 1479
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Bovada | -110 | -110 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |
Model Analysis
CIN is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Brandon Williamson toes the rubber against Bubba Chandler. The sim projects CIN to plate 5.2 runs — expect some fireworks.