TBR
39%
@
March 31, 2026
MIL
61%
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Shane McClanahan
vs
MIL
Brandon Woodruff
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 39.5% | 60.6% |
| Simulation only | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| Elo ratings | 27.3% | 72.7% |
| Market (implied) | 44.4% | 55.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
4.6
MIL avg runs
4.1
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = MIL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 5.6% | 9.3% | 12.2% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 11.6% | 9.4% | 7.7% | 6.1% | 4.1% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| MIL | 6.6% | 11.8% | 13.8% | 15.0% | 13.4% | 11.6% | 9.9% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Jonathan Aranda
- Jake Fraley
- Junior Caminero
- Cedric Mullins
- Chandler Simpson
- Carson Williams
- Richie Palacios
- Hunter Feduccia
MIL
- Brice Turang
- William Contreras
- Luis Rengifo
- Gary Sánchez
- Sal Frelick
- Joey Ortiz
- Jeferson Quero
- Brandon Lockridge
- Blake Perkins
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.13
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1424
MIL: 1570
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | MIL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +118 | -138 |
| Bovada | +113 | -135 |
| BetMGM | +115 | -135 |
| DraftKings | +113 | -136 |
| Caesars | +115 | -135 |