TEX
51%
@
March 31, 2026
BAL
49%
Pitching Matchup
TEX
Jacob deGrom
vs
BAL
Zach Eflin
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| Simulation only | 50.9% | 49.1% |
| Elo ratings | 50.8% | 49.2% |
| Market (implied) | 54.5% | 45.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
5.4
BAL avg runs
4.8
Avg total
10.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 3.6% | 7.1% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 11.7% | 10.8% | 8.5% | 7.0% | 5.5% | 3.6% | 3.0% |
| BAL | 4.4% | 8.0% | 11.8% | 13.3% | 13.5% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.2% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Josh Smith
- Josh Jung
- Evan Carter
- Danny Jansen
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Pete Alonso
- Adley Rutschman
- Samuel Basallo
- Tyler O'Neill
- Colton Cowser
- Coby Mayo
- Blaze Alexander
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.18
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
81°F
Wind: 12 mph out
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1544
BAL: 1514
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -132 | +112 |
| Bovada | -131 | +109 |
| BetMGM | -130 | +110 |
| DraftKings | -131 | +109 |