CLE
38%
@
March 31, 2026
LAD
62%
ML
CLE ML (+218) — 38% win, +6.3% edge
Pitching Matchup
CLE
Tanner Bibee
vs
LAD
Shohei Ohtani
Win Probability
| Source | CLE | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 37.9% | 62.1% |
| Simulation only | 35.6% | 64.4% |
| Elo ratings | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| Market (implied) | 30.9% | 69.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CLE avg runs
5.0
LAD avg runs
6.0
Avg total
11.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CLE wins, Positive = LAD wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 4.6% | 8.7% | 11.3% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 10.3% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.9% | 3.2% | 2.0% |
| LAD | 2.3% | 4.7% | 7.9% | 10.0% | 11.5% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.1% | 7.9% | 6.6% | 5.0% | 3.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- Bo Naylor
- Daniel Schneemann
- Gabriel Arias
- CJ Kayfus
- Brayan Rocchio
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Mookie Betts
- Freddie Freeman
- Will Smith
- Max Muncy
- Teoscar Hernández
- Andy Pages
- Alex Freeland
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.25
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
69°F
Wind: 12 mph cross
Elo Ratings
CLE: 1569
LAD: 1614
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CLE | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +215 | -260 |
| Bovada | +205 | -250 |
| BetMGM | +195 | -235 |
| DraftKings | +218 | -271 |
| Caesars | +215 | -267 |
Model Analysis
The market has CLE as a +218 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Tanner Bibee keeps CLE competitive on the mound against Shohei Ohtani. Hitter-friendly yard boosts power.