DET
49%
@
March 31, 2026
ARI
51%
Pitching Matchup
DET
Casey Mize
vs
ARI
Brandon Pfaadt
Win Probability
| Source | DET | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.6% | 51.3% |
| Simulation only | 46.0% | 54.0% |
| Elo ratings | 51.3% | 48.7% |
| Market (implied) | 49.1% | 50.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DET avg runs
4.5
ARI avg runs
4.4
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = DET wins, Positive = ARI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 6.3% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 13.3% | 12.8% | 11.7% | 9.6% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.8% |
| ARI | 5.5% | 10.0% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.7% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
DET
- Kerry Carpenter
- Gleyber Torres
- Colt Keith
- Riley Greene
- Spencer Torkelson
- Kevin McGonigle
- Dillon Dingler
- Parker Meadows
- Javier Bรกez
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Gabriel Moreno
- Nolan Arenado
- Alek Thomas
- Carlos Santana
- Ildemaro Vargas
- Jordan Lawlar
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
DET: 1523
ARI: 1490
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | DET | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -108 | -108 |
| Bovada | +100 | -120 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |