LAA
39%
@
March 31, 2026
CHC
61%
Pitching Matchup
LAA
Jose Soriano
vs
CHC
Jameson Taillon
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 39.1% | 60.9% |
| Simulation only | 43.6% | 56.4% |
| Elo ratings | 34.6% | 65.4% |
| Market (implied) | 43.1% | 56.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
4.1
CHC avg runs
4.3
Avg total
8.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 7.7% | 11.6% | 14.1% | 14.3% | 13.0% | 11.1% | 9.1% | 6.6% | 4.5% | 3.3% | 2.0% | 1.2% |
| CHC | 6.1% | 10.2% | 12.9% | 14.4% | 14.1% | 12.2% | 9.1% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.3% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Oswald Peraza
CHC
- Michael Busch
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Nico Hoerner
- Carson Kelly
- Moisés Ballesteros
- Dansby Swanson
- Michael Conforto
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.88
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
47°F
Wind: 9 mph out
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1451
CHC: 1538
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +120 | -142 |
| Bovada | +122 | -145 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |