NYY
55%
@
March 31, 2026
SEA
45%
Pitching Matchup
NYY
Max Fried
vs
SEA
Logan Gilbert
Win Probability
| Source | NYY | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 54.6% | 45.4% |
| Simulation only | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Elo ratings | 59.2% | 40.8% |
| Market (implied) | 50.5% | 49.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYY avg runs
4.3
SEA avg runs
3.9
Avg total
8.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYY wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 6.8% | 10.9% | 13.1% | 14.4% | 13.4% | 11.2% | 8.6% | 7.2% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
| SEA | 8.3% | 12.0% | 14.2% | 15.2% | 13.6% | 11.3% | 8.8% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 2.6% | 1.8% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Ben Rice
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Ryan McMahon
- Austin Wells
- José Caballero
SEA
- Rob Refsnyder
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Brendan Donovan
- Victor Robles
- Leo Rivas
- Cole Young
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
NYY: 1629
SEA: 1540
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYY | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -112 | -104 |
| Bovada | -108 | -112 |
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings | -115 | -105 |
| Caesars | -115 | -105 |