SFG
45%
@
March 31, 2026
SDP
55%
ML
SDP ML (+122) — 55% win, +7.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
SFG
Logan Webb
vs
SDP
German Marquez
Win Probability
| Source | SFG | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.3% | 54.7% |
| Simulation only | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| Elo ratings | 43.4% | 56.6% |
| Market (implied) | 56.1% | 43.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SFG avg runs
4.9
SDP avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SFG wins, Positive = SDP wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 4.8% | 9.1% | 11.0% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 11.5% | 9.9% | 8.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| SDP | 4.9% | 8.8% | 11.9% | 12.7% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 4.1% | 2.9% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Rafael Devers
- Heliot Ramos
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Harrison Bader
- Patrick Bailey
- Casey Schmitt
SDP
- Jake Cronenworth
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Manny Machado
- Jackson Merrill
- Xander Bogaerts
- Gavin Sheets
- Ramón Laureano
- Nick Castellanos
- Freddy Fermin
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.93
HR: 1.05
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Elo Ratings
SFG: 1453
SDP: 1475
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SFG | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -144 | +122 |
| Bovada | -136 | +114 |
| BetMGM | -145 | +120 |
| DraftKings | -143 | +119 |
| Caesars | -140 | +118 |
Model Analysis
SDP is getting plus-money at +122 and the model thinks that's too cheap. German Marquez keeps SDP competitive on the mound against Logan Webb.