WSN
49%
@
March 31, 2026
PHI
51%
RL
WSN +1.5 (-126) — 62% win, +7.0% edge
Pitching Matchup
WSN
PJ Poulin
vs
PHI
Andrew Painter
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.4% | 50.6% |
| Simulation only | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| Elo ratings | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| Market (implied) | 37.3% | 62.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
5.3
PHI avg runs
5.2
Avg total
10.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 3.8% | 7.9% | 10.1% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.9% | 6.8% | 5.1% | 3.5% | 2.6% |
| PHI | 3.8% | 7.3% | 10.4% | 12.1% | 12.6% | 11.7% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 6.7% | 5.4% | 3.9% | 2.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- CJ Abrams
- Drew Millas
- José Tena
- Jorbit Vivas
- Joey Wiemer
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Alec Bohm
- Adolis García
- Edmundo Sosa
- Otto Kemp
- Brandon Marsh
- Justin Crawford
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.22
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
78°F
Wind: 13 mph cross
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1532
PHI: 1487
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +154 | -184 |
| Bovada | +155 | -188 |
| BetMGM | +155 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +159 | -194 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |
Model Analysis
WSN is getting +1.5 at -126. The sim gives them a 62% chance of covering — 7.0% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.