BOS
50%
@
April 1, 2026
HOU
50%
ML
HOU ML (+130) — 50% win, +6.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
BOS
Garrett Crochet
vs
HOU
Mike Burrows
Win Probability
| Source | BOS | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 50.4% | 49.6% |
| Simulation only | 51.0% | 49.0% |
| Elo ratings | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Market (implied) | 57.5% | 42.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BOS avg runs
5.0
HOU avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BOS wins, Positive = HOU wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BOS | 4.9% | 8.1% | 10.8% | 12.3% | 12.6% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 8.7% | 6.7% | 4.6% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| HOU | 5.5% | 9.8% | 13.0% | 13.3% | 13.7% | 12.4% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 5.0% | 4.0% | 2.4% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Trevor Story
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Caleb Durbin
- Marcelo Mayer
- Carlos Narváez
- Ceddanne Rafaela
HOU
- Jose Altuve
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Carlos Correa
- Christian Walker
- Cam Smith
- Jake Meyers
- Christian Vázquez
- Brice Matthews
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
BOS: 1489
HOU: 1467
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BOS | HOU |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -146 | +124 |
| Bovada | -143 | +120 |
| BetMGM | -150 | +125 |
| DraftKings | -156 | +129 |
| Caesars | -155 | +130 |
Model Analysis
HOU is getting plus-money at +130 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Mike Burrows keeps HOU competitive on the mound against Garrett Crochet.