DET
48%
@
April 1, 2026
ARI
52%
ML
ARI ML (+140) — 52% win, +8.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
DET
Tarik Skubal
vs
ARI
Zac Gallen
Win Probability
| Source | DET | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 47.7% | 52.3% |
| Simulation only | 47.1% | 52.9% |
| Elo ratings | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Market (implied) | 59.8% | 40.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
DET avg runs
4.4
ARI avg runs
4.3
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = DET wins, Positive = ARI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DET | 6.6% | 10.3% | 13.2% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 11.6% | 9.5% | 7.4% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.2% | 1.4% |
| ARI | 6.7% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 14.3% | 13.9% | 11.5% | 9.4% | 7.3% | 5.0% | 3.5% | 1.9% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
DET
- Colt Keith
- Kevin McGonigle
- Gleyber Torres
- Riley Greene
- Spencer Torkelson
- Kerry Carpenter
- Dillon Dingler
- Parker Meadows
- Javier Bรกez
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Gabriel Moreno
- Nolan Arenado
- Jose Fernandez
- Carlos Santana
- Jorge Barrosa
- Jordan Lawlar
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
DET: 1513
ARI: 1500
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | DET | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -166 | +140 |
| Bovada | -163 | +137 |
| BetMGM | -170 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -163 | +135 |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 |
Model Analysis
The market has ARI as a +140 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Zac Gallen keeps ARI competitive on the mound against Tarik Skubal. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.