LAA
42%
@
April 1, 2026
CHC
58%
Pitching Matchup
LAA
Yusei Kikuchi
vs
CHC
Matthew Boyd
Win Probability
| Source | LAA | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.5% | 58.5% |
| Simulation only | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Elo ratings | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Market (implied) | 40.2% | 59.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAA avg runs
3.9
CHC avg runs
4.0
Avg total
7.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAA wins, Positive = CHC wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAA | 8.1% | 12.6% | 15.0% | 14.6% | 13.3% | 11.1% | 8.4% | 6.2% | 4.0% | 2.6% | 1.7% | 1.1% |
| CHC | 7.5% | 11.6% | 15.1% | 15.4% | 13.5% | 11.3% | 8.5% | 6.6% | 3.9% | 2.7% | 1.7% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoรกn Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Bryce Teodosio
- Travis d'Arnaud
- Oswald Peraza
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Carson Kelly
- Dansby Swanson
- Scott Kingery
- Dylan Carlson
- Matt Shaw
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.92
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Weather
Forecast
39°F
Wind: 17 mph out
Elo Ratings
LAA: 1464
CHC: 1525
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAA | CHC |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +136 | -162 |
| Bovada | +139 | -165 |
| BetMGM | +140 | -165 |
| DraftKings | +141 | -171 |
| Caesars | +140 | -165 |