MIN
47%
@
April 1, 2026
KCR
53%
Pitching Matchup
MIN
Joe Ryan
vs
KCR
Noah Cameron
Win Probability
| Source | MIN | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.9% | 53.1% |
| Simulation only | 47.5% | 52.5% |
| Elo ratings | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| Market (implied) | 52.1% | 47.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIN avg runs
5.3
KCR avg runs
5.0
Avg total
10.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIN wins, Positive = KCR wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIN | 4.3% | 8.0% | 10.0% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 11.1% | 10.9% | 8.6% | 6.8% | 5.3% | 3.6% | 2.4% |
| KCR | 4.0% | 8.2% | 10.9% | 11.9% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 9.0% | 6.4% | 4.6% | 3.3% | 2.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIN
- Austin Martin
- Byron Buxton
- Luke Keaschall
- Ryan Jeffers
- Matt Wallner
- Josh Bell
- Victor Caratini
- Royce Lewis
- Brooks Lee
KCR
- Maikel Garcia
- Bobby Witt Jr.
- Vinnie Pasquantino
- Salvador Perez
- Carter Jensen
- Jonathan India
- Jac Caglianone
- Isaac Collins
- Kyle Isbel
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.1
K: 0.93
Elo Ratings
MIN: 1462
KCR: 1464
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIN | KCR |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -118 | +100 |
| Bovada | -121 | +101 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |