NYM
44%
@
April 1, 2026
STL
56%
ML
STL ML (+141) — 56% win, +9.6% edge
Pitching Matchup
NYM
Freddy Peralta
vs
STL
Matthew Liberatore
Win Probability
| Source | NYM | STL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 44.4% | 55.6% |
| Simulation only | 53.1% | 46.9% |
| Elo ratings | 35.8% | 64.2% |
| Market (implied) | 59.9% | 40.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYM avg runs
4.9
STL avg runs
4.2
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYM wins, Positive = STL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 5.0% | 8.4% | 11.3% | 11.8% | 13.2% | 12.0% | 10.3% | 8.7% | 6.0% | 4.6% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| STL | 6.8% | 11.2% | 13.4% | 14.5% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 7.0% | 4.9% | 3.0% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Juan Soto
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Mark Vientos
- Marcus Semien
- Tyrone Taylor
- Francisco Alvarez
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Masyn Winn
- Nolan Gorman
- Jordan Walker
- Nathan Church
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
62°F
Wind: 5 mph cross
Elo Ratings
NYM: 1463
STL: 1540
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYM | STL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -164 | +138 |
| Bovada | -165 | +139 |
| BetMGM | -170 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -171 | +141 |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 |
Model Analysis
The market has STL as a +141 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Matthew Liberatore keeps STL competitive on the mound against Freddy Peralta. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.