NYY
55%
@
April 1, 2026
SEA
45%
Pitching Matchup
NYY
Cam Schlittler
vs
SEA
George Kirby
Win Probability
| Source | NYY | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 55.0% | 45.0% |
| Simulation only | 48.5% | 51.5% |
| Elo ratings | 61.5% | 38.5% |
| Market (implied) | 48.1% | 51.9% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYY avg runs
4.3
SEA avg runs
4.0
Avg total
8.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYY wins, Positive = SEA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYY | 6.8% | 11.5% | 12.4% | 13.8% | 13.3% | 11.9% | 9.3% | 7.1% | 5.3% | 3.2% | 2.0% | 1.4% |
| SEA | 7.5% | 12.2% | 13.8% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 11.6% | 9.0% | 6.6% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 1.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Ben Rice
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Ryan McMahon
- Austin Wells
- José Caballero
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- Dominic Canzone
- Cole Young
- Leo Rivas
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.83
HR: 0.87
BB: 1.0
K: 1.14
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
NYY: 1637
SEA: 1532
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYY | SEA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +102 | -120 |
| Bovada | +101 | -121 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings | -102 | -118 |
| Caesars | +100 | -120 |