Athletics
40%
@
April 1, 2026
ATL
60%
RL
Athletics +1.5 (-118) — 63% win, +10.0% edge
Pitching Matchup
Athletics
Luis Severino
vs
ATL
Chris Sale
Win Probability
| Source | Athletics | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| Simulation only | 46.2% | 53.8% |
| Elo ratings | 34.2% | 65.8% |
| Market (implied) | 33.9% | 66.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
Athletics avg runs
5.0
ATL avg runs
5.0
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = Athletics wins, Positive = ATL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Athletics | 4.3% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 11.8% | 13.1% | 11.7% | 10.1% | 8.5% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.1% | 2.4% |
| ATL | 4.1% | 7.5% | 10.4% | 13.1% | 13.1% | 12.5% | 10.6% | 8.8% | 6.3% | 4.5% | 3.4% | 2.0% |
Lineups PROJECTED
Athletics
- Jacob Wilson
- Shea Langeliers
- Nick Kurtz
- Brent Rooker
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Max Muncy
- Andy Ibáñez
- Lawrence Butler
- Denzel Clarke
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Mike Yastrzemski
- Ozzie Albies
- Michael Harris II
- Dominic Smith
- Mauricio Dubón
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
80°F
Wind: 7 mph in
Elo Ratings
Athletics: 1463
ATL: 1552
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | Athletics | ATL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +184 | -220 |
| Bovada | +180 | -220 |
| BetMGM | +180 | -220 |
| DraftKings | +179 | -219 |
| Caesars | +180 | -220 |
Model Analysis
Athletics is getting +1.5 at -118. The sim gives them a 63% chance of covering — 10.0% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.