CLE
37%
@
April 1, 2026
LAD
63%
ML
CLE ML (+220) — 37% win, +6.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
CLE
Gavin Williams
vs
LAD
Yoshinobu Yamamoto
Win Probability
| Source | CLE | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 37.2% | 62.8% |
| Simulation only | 36.4% | 63.6% |
| Elo ratings | 38.0% | 62.0% |
| Market (implied) | 30.0% | 70.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CLE avg runs
5.0
LAD avg runs
6.0
Avg total
10.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CLE wins, Positive = LAD wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CLE | 5.0% | 8.6% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 12.9% | 11.9% | 9.9% | 7.7% | 6.0% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.3% |
| LAD | 2.4% | 4.8% | 7.8% | 10.2% | 11.7% | 12.3% | 11.2% | 9.9% | 8.2% | 6.3% | 4.8% | 3.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- Bo Naylor
- Daniel Schneemann
- Gabriel Arias
- CJ Kayfus
- Brayan Rocchio
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Mookie Betts
- Freddie Freeman
- Will Smith
- Max Muncy
- Teoscar Hernández
- Andy Pages
- Alex Freeland
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.25
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
68°F
Wind: 12 mph cross
Elo Ratings
CLE: 1561
LAD: 1622
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CLE | LAD |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +220 | -270 |
| Bovada | +220 | -270 |
| BetMGM | +220 | -275 |
| DraftKings | +218 | -271 |
| Caesars | +215 | -267 |
Model Analysis
The market has CLE as a +220 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Gavin Williams keeps CLE competitive on the mound against Yoshinobu Yamamoto. Hitter-friendly yard boosts power.