CWS
32%
@
April 1, 2026
MIA
68%
ML
MIA ML (-150) — 68% win, +8.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
CWS
Shane Smith
vs
MIA
Sandy Alcantara
Win Probability
| Source | CWS | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 32.1% | 67.9% |
| Simulation only | 40.6% | 59.4% |
| Elo ratings | 23.6% | 76.4% |
| Market (implied) | 41.8% | 58.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CWS avg runs
4.1
MIA avg runs
4.6
Avg total
8.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CWS wins, Positive = MIA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CWS | 7.8% | 12.1% | 14.1% | 13.9% | 12.5% | 11.4% | 8.9% | 6.5% | 4.6% | 3.1% | 2.1% | 1.2% |
| MIA | 5.1% | 9.3% | 12.3% | 13.5% | 13.8% | 12.0% | 9.6% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.2% | 2.3% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Munetaka Murakami
- Andrew Benintendi
- Colson Montgomery
- Miguel Vargas
- Austin Hays
- Everson Pereira
- Reese McGuire
- Luisangel Acuña
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Xavier Edwards
- Agustín Ramírez
- Liam Hicks
- Otto Lopez
- Owen Caissie
- Connor Norby
- Griffin Conine
- Graham Pauley
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CWS: 1381
MIA: 1561
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CWS | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +132 | -156 |
| Bovada | +129 | -154 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +129 | -156 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |
Model Analysis
MIA is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Sandy Alcantara toes the rubber against Shane Smith. MIA holds a commanding 180-point Elo edge.