PIT
43%
@
April 1, 2026
CIN
57%
ML
CIN ML (+140) — 57% win, +10.0% edge
Pitching Matchup
PIT
Paul Skenes
vs
CIN
Andrew Abbott
Win Probability
| Source | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Simulation only | 47.6% | 52.4% |
| Elo ratings | 38.5% | 61.5% |
| Market (implied) | 59.6% | 40.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
PIT avg runs
5.3
CIN avg runs
5.1
Avg total
10.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = PIT wins, Positive = CIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| PIT | 4.1% | 7.2% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 10.7% | 8.5% | 7.1% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.9% |
| CIN | 3.9% | 7.7% | 10.4% | 12.8% | 12.9% | 11.7% | 11.4% | 8.3% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.4% | 2.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
PIT
- Jake Mangum
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Bryan Reynolds
- Marcell Ozuna
- Brandon Lowe
- Nick Gonzales
- Henry Davis
- Oneil Cruz
- Nick Yorke
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Will Benson
- Tyler Stephenson
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.29
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
63°F
Wind: 6 mph cross
Elo Ratings
PIT: 1409
CIN: 1466
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | PIT | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -162 | +136 |
| Bovada | -162 | +136 |
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 |
| DraftKings | -168 | +139 |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 |
Model Analysis
The market has CIN as a +140 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Andrew Abbott keeps CIN competitive on the mound against Paul Skenes. The sim projects CIN to plate 5.1 runs — expect some fireworks.