SFG
46%
@
April 1, 2026
SDP
54%
Pitching Matchup
SFG
Adrian Houser
vs
SDP
Nick Pivetta
Win Probability
| Source | SFG | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.8% | 54.2% |
| Simulation only | 45.0% | 55.0% |
| Elo ratings | 46.6% | 53.4% |
| Market (implied) | 42.4% | 57.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SFG avg runs
4.9
SDP avg runs
4.9
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SFG wins, Positive = SDP wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SFG | 5.0% | 9.3% | 10.7% | 13.0% | 12.8% | 11.8% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 5.7% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% |
| SDP | 4.5% | 7.9% | 11.4% | 12.6% | 13.2% | 12.4% | 10.7% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 4.3% | 3.2% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Rafael Devers
- Heliot Ramos
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Harrison Bader
- Patrick Bailey
- Casey Schmitt
SDP
- Jake Cronenworth
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Manny Machado
- Jackson Merrill
- Xander Bogaerts
- Ramón Laureano
- Gavin Sheets
- Nick Castellanos
- Luis Campusano
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.93
HR: 1.05
BB: 1.0
K: 1.06
Elo Ratings
SFG: 1464
SDP: 1463
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SFG | SDP |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +130 | -154 |
| Bovada | +129 | -154 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +122 | -145 |