TEX
51%
@
April 1, 2026
BAL
49%
Pitching Matchup
TEX
Nathan Eovaldi
vs
BAL
Trevor Rogers
Win Probability
| Source | TEX | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.4% | 48.6% |
| Simulation only | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Elo ratings | 53.6% | 46.4% |
| Market (implied) | 48.4% | 51.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TEX avg runs
5.2
BAL avg runs
4.8
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TEX wins, Positive = BAL wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TEX | 3.9% | 7.8% | 10.7% | 11.4% | 12.3% | 11.8% | 10.4% | 8.8% | 7.1% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.6% |
| BAL | 4.1% | 8.1% | 11.8% | 13.5% | 13.1% | 12.8% | 10.8% | 7.8% | 6.1% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Andrew McCutchen
- Kyle Higashioka
- Josh Jung
- Sam Haggerty
- Ezequiel Duran
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Pete Alonso
- Ryan Mountcastle
- Samuel Basallo
- Tyler O'Neill
- Colton Cowser
- Coby Mayo
- Blaze Alexander
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.17
BB: 0.92
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
78°F
Wind: 8 mph cross
Elo Ratings
TEX: 1553
BAL: 1504
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TEX | BAL |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -102 | -116 |
| Bovada | -101 | -119 |
| BetMGM | -105 | -115 |
| DraftKings | -105 | -115 |
| Caesars | -105 | -115 |