WSN
45%
@
April 1, 2026
PHI
55%
RL
WSN +1.5 (+105) — 57% win, +8.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
WSN
Cade Cavalli
vs
PHI
Cristopher Sánchez
Win Probability
| Source | WSN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.1% | 54.9% |
| Simulation only | 40.2% | 59.8% |
| Elo ratings | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Market (implied) | 29.9% | 70.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
WSN avg runs
4.7
PHI avg runs
5.3
Avg total
10.0
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = WSN wins, Positive = PHI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| WSN | 5.5% | 9.4% | 11.8% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 11.9% | 10.0% | 8.2% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 2.0% |
| PHI | 3.1% | 6.7% | 10.5% | 11.9% | 12.8% | 12.2% | 10.9% | 9.0% | 7.5% | 5.4% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
WSN
- James Wood
- Andrés Chaparro
- Brady House
- Daylen Lile
- Joey Wiemer
- CJ Abrams
- Nasim Nuñez
- Keibert Ruiz
- Jacob Young
PHI
- Trea Turner
- Kyle Schwarber
- Bryce Harper
- Alec Bohm
- Bryson Stott
- Adolis García
- Brandon Marsh
- J.T. Realmuto
- Justin Crawford
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 1.19
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
69°F
Wind: 14 mph cross
Elo Ratings
WSN: 1521
PHI: 1497
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | WSN | PHI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +215 | -260 |
| Bovada | +225 | -280 |
| BetMGM | +220 | -275 |
| DraftKings | +224 | -280 |
| Caesars | +222 | -278 |
Model Analysis
WSN is getting +1.5 at +105. The sim gives them a 57% chance of covering — 8.7% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.