ATL
51%
@
April 3, 2026
ARI
49%
Pitching Matchup
ATL
Grant Holmes
vs
ARI
Eduardo Rodriguez
Win Probability
| Source | ATL | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.2% | 48.8% |
| Simulation only | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Elo ratings | 56.3% | 43.7% |
| Market (implied) | 53.4% | 46.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
ATL avg runs
4.5
ARI avg runs
4.4
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = ATL wins, Positive = ARI wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ATL | 5.9% | 10.3% | 13.1% | 13.8% | 12.7% | 11.9% | 9.2% | 7.1% | 5.6% | 3.7% | 2.5% | 1.6% |
| ARI | 5.8% | 9.8% | 13.1% | 13.5% | 14.4% | 11.2% | 9.8% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.7% | 2.3% | 1.3% |
Lineups PROJECTED
ATL
- Ronald Acuña Jr.
- Drake Baldwin
- Ozzie Albies
- Matt Olson
- Austin Riley
- Eli White
- Mauricio Dubón
- Jonah Heim
- Michael Harris II
ARI
- Ketel Marte
- Corbin Carroll
- Geraldo Perdomo
- Gabriel Moreno
- Alek Thomas
- Nolan Arenado
- Jose Fernandez
- Carlos Santana
- Jordan Lawlar
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
ATL: 1568
ARI: 1501
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | ATL | ARI |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -120 | +102 |
| Bovada | -128 | +107 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -126 | +104 |
| Caesars | -130 | +110 |