CHC
46%
@
April 3, 2026
CLE
54%
Pitching Matchup
CHC
Cade Horton
vs
CLE
Joseph Cantillo
Win Probability
| Source | CHC | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.3% | 53.7% |
| Simulation only | 51.9% | 48.1% |
| Elo ratings | 40.8% | 59.2% |
| Market (implied) | 52.0% | 48.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CHC avg runs
4.7
CLE avg runs
4.0
Avg total
8.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CHC wins, Positive = CLE wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CHC | 5.6% | 9.7% | 12.0% | 13.4% | 12.2% | 11.6% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 2.0% |
| CLE | 7.1% | 12.0% | 13.9% | 14.3% | 13.7% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 6.9% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 2.0% | 0.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CHC
- Nico Hoerner
- Alex Bregman
- Ian Happ
- Carson Kelly
- Michael Busch
- Dansby Swanson
- Matt Shaw
- Pete Crow-Armstrong
- Miguel Amaya
CLE
- Steven Kwan
- Chase DeLauter
- José Ramírez
- Kyle Manzardo
- Bo Naylor
- Daniel Schneemann
- Brayan Rocchio
- Gabriel Arias
- Angel Martínez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
64°F
Wind: 4 mph out
Elo Ratings
CHC: 1533
CLE: 1574
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CHC | CLE |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -118 | +100 |
| Bovada | -120 | +100 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |