CIN
39%
@
April 3, 2026
TEX
61%
Pitching Matchup
CIN
Brady Singer
vs
TEX
MacKenzie Gore
Win Probability
| Source | CIN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 39.4% | 60.6% |
| Simulation only | 44.5% | 55.5% |
| Elo ratings | 34.3% | 65.7% |
| Market (implied) | 39.2% | 60.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CIN avg runs
4.6
TEX avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CIN wins, Positive = TEX wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 5.8% | 9.9% | 12.0% | 13.1% | 13.0% | 12.2% | 9.2% | 7.7% | 5.7% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.9% |
| TEX | 4.6% | 8.5% | 12.1% | 13.3% | 13.9% | 12.1% | 10.3% | 8.3% | 5.6% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Noelvi Marte
- Tyler Stephenson
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Josh Smith
- Josh Jung
- Evan Carter
- Danny Jansen
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CIN: 1454
TEX: 1543
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CIN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +146 | -174 |
| Bovada | +143 | -174 |
| BetMGM | +140 | -170 |
| DraftKings | +141 | -171 |
| Caesars | +143 | -170 |