HOU
46%
@
April 3, 2026
Athletics
54%
Pitching Matchup
HOU
Cristian Javier
vs
Athletics
Jeffrey Springs
Win Probability
| Source | HOU | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.1% | 53.9% |
| Simulation only | 42.7% | 57.3% |
| Elo ratings | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| Market (implied) | 50.5% | 49.5% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
HOU avg runs
4.8
Athletics avg runs
4.9
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = HOU wins, Positive = Athletics wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| HOU | 4.7% | 9.2% | 12.2% | 13.7% | 12.8% | 11.3% | 9.7% | 7.5% | 5.7% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 2.1% |
| Athletics | 3.9% | 8.5% | 11.2% | 12.5% | 13.3% | 13.2% | 10.5% | 8.5% | 6.2% | 4.5% | 2.8% | 2.1% |
Lineups PROJECTED
HOU
- Jose Altuve
- Yordan Alvarez
- Isaac Paredes
- Carlos Correa
- Christian Walker
- Cam Smith
- Jake Meyers
- Yainer Diaz
- Brice Matthews
Athletics
- Nick Kurtz
- Shea Langeliers
- Tyler Soderstrom
- Brent Rooker
- Jacob Wilson
- Lawrence Butler
- Max Muncy
- Jeff McNeil
- Denzel Clarke
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.0
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Elo Ratings
HOU: 1477
Athletics: 1456
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | HOU | Athletics |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -112 | -104 |
| Bovada | -108 | -112 |
| BetMGM | -115 | -105 |
| DraftKings | -110 | -110 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |