LAD
59%
@
April 3, 2026
WSN
41%
ML
WSN ML (+220) — 41% win, +9.6% edge
Pitching Matchup
LAD
vs
WSN
Miles Mikolas
Win Probability
| Source | LAD | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 59.3% | 40.7% |
| Simulation only | 58.1% | 41.9% |
| Elo ratings | 60.5% | 39.5% |
| Market (implied) | 70.0% | 30.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAD avg runs
5.8
WSN avg runs
4.4
Avg total
10.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAD wins, Positive = WSN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 2.7% | 6.0% | 9.0% | 10.8% | 11.5% | 11.3% | 10.6% | 9.0% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 5.0% | 3.2% |
| WSN | 5.4% | 10.2% | 13.5% | 13.9% | 13.0% | 11.8% | 9.9% | 7.6% | 5.3% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Mookie Betts
- Freddie Freeman
- Will Smith
- Max Muncy
- Teoscar Hernández
- Andy Pages
- Alex Freeland
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- CJ Abrams
- Daylen Lile
- Jorbit Vivas
- Keibert Ruiz
- José Tena
- Joey Wiemer
- Nasim Nuñez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 0.95
K: 0.95
Elo Ratings
LAD: 1610
WSN: 1511
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAD | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -270 | +220 |
| Bovada | -270 | +220 |
| BetMGM | -275 | +220 |
| DraftKings | -271 | +218 |
| Caesars | -267 | +215 |
Model Analysis
The market has WSN as a +220 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. LAD is the better team on paper — but the matchup favors WSN today.