MIA
39%
@
April 3, 2026
NYY
61%
Pitching Matchup
MIA
Eury Perez
vs
NYY
Will Warren
Win Probability
| Source | MIA | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 39.0% | 61.0% |
| Simulation only | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| Elo ratings | 35.5% | 64.5% |
| Market (implied) | 37.8% | 62.2% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
MIA avg runs
5.0
NYY avg runs
5.3
Avg total
10.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = MIA wins, Positive = NYY wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| MIA | 4.8% | 8.8% | 11.2% | 12.3% | 12.7% | 11.7% | 10.2% | 8.0% | 5.9% | 4.7% | 3.7% | 2.1% |
| NYY | 3.6% | 6.8% | 9.9% | 12.2% | 12.9% | 12.1% | 10.4% | 8.6% | 6.9% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
MIA
- Jakob Marsee
- Xavier Edwards
- Agustín Ramírez
- Liam Hicks
- Otto Lopez
- Owen Caissie
- Connor Norby
- Griffin Conine
- Graham Pauley
NYY
- Trent Grisham
- Aaron Judge
- Cody Bellinger
- Ben Rice
- Giancarlo Stanton
- Jazz Chisholm Jr.
- Ryan McMahon
- Austin Wells
- José Caballero
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.15
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
65°F
Wind: 8 mph cross
Elo Ratings
MIA: 1565
NYY: 1645
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | MIA | NYY |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +150 | -178 |
| Bovada | +144 | -175 |
| BetMGM | +150 | -185 |
| DraftKings | +153 | -186 |
| Caesars | +158 | -190 |