NYM
46%
@
April 3, 2026
SFG
54%
ML
SFG ML (+115) — 54% win, +6.4% edge
Pitching Matchup
NYM
Nolan McLean
vs
SFG
Tyler Mahle
Win Probability
| Source | NYM | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.4% | 53.6% |
| Simulation only | 48.7% | 51.3% |
| Elo ratings | 44.0% | 56.0% |
| Market (implied) | 54.9% | 45.1% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYM avg runs
4.9
SFG avg runs
4.6
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYM wins, Positive = SFG wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 4.6% | 9.2% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 6.2% | 4.4% | 2.9% | 2.0% |
| SFG | 5.3% | 9.4% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 7.5% | 5.5% | 3.7% | 2.4% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Juan Soto
- Bo Bichette
- Jorge Polanco
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Brett Baty
- Marcus Semien
- Carson Benge
- Francisco Alvarez
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Rafael Devers
- Heliot Ramos
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Harrison Bader
- Patrick Bailey
- Casey Schmitt
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.91
HR: 0.82
BB: 0.86
K: 0.9
Elo Ratings
NYM: 1446
SFG: 1464
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYM | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -130 | +110 |
| Bovada | -135 | +113 |
| BetMGM | -135 | +115 |
| DraftKings | -136 | +113 |
| Caesars | -135 | +115 |
Model Analysis
SFG is getting plus-money at +115 and the model thinks that's too cheap. Tyler Mahle keeps SFG competitive on the mound against Nolan McLean. Pitcher's park suppresses the long ball.