SDP
47%
@
April 3, 2026
BOS
53%
Pitching Matchup
SDP
Mike King
vs
BOS
Sonny Gray
Win Probability
| Source | SDP | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 46.8% | 53.2% |
| Simulation only | 47.9% | 52.1% |
| Elo ratings | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| Market (implied) | 47.0% | 53.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SDP avg runs
5.2
BOS avg runs
4.9
Avg total
10.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SDP wins, Positive = BOS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDP | 4.4% | 7.9% | 11.0% | 12.3% | 12.0% | 11.2% | 10.8% | 8.1% | 6.8% | 4.8% | 3.8% | 2.4% |
| BOS | 4.5% | 7.8% | 11.1% | 13.1% | 13.6% | 12.5% | 10.7% | 7.8% | 6.2% | 4.8% | 3.0% | 1.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SDP
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Xander Bogaerts
- Jackson Merrill
- Manny Machado
- Jake Cronenworth
- Ramón Laureano
- Gavin Sheets
- Nick Castellanos
- Freddy Fermin
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Trevor Story
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Caleb Durbin
- Marcelo Mayer
- Carlos Narváez
- Ceddanne Rafaela
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.83
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
56°F
Wind: 9 mph cross
Elo Ratings
SDP: 1473
BOS: 1479
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SDP | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +104 | -122 |
| Bovada | +107 | -128 |
| BetMGM | +100 | -120 |
| DraftKings | +102 | -122 |
| Caesars | +105 | -125 |