SEA
54%
@
April 3, 2026
LAA
46%
Pitching Matchup
SEA
Bryan Woo
vs
LAA
Reid Detmers
Win Probability
| Source | SEA | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 54.3% | 45.7% |
| Simulation only | 52.4% | 47.6% |
| Elo ratings | 56.2% | 43.8% |
| Market (implied) | 59.3% | 40.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SEA avg runs
5.1
LAA avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.5
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SEA wins, Positive = LAA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 4.5% | 8.2% | 10.6% | 12.4% | 12.9% | 11.4% | 9.9% | 8.6% | 6.5% | 4.9% | 3.5% | 2.2% |
| LAA | 6.0% | 9.9% | 12.8% | 14.0% | 13.8% | 12.2% | 10.1% | 7.2% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.2% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SEA
- Rob Refsnyder
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Brendan Donovan
- Victor Robles
- J.P. Crawford
- Leo Rivas
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Oswald Peraza
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.09
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
86°F
Wind: 13 mph out
Elo Ratings
SEA: 1524
LAA: 1457
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SEA | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -162 | +136 |
| Bovada | -154 | +129 |
| BetMGM | -170 | +140 |
| DraftKings | -168 | +139 |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 |