TBR
42%
@
April 3, 2026
MIN
58%
ML
MIN ML (-110) — 58% win, +6.2% edge
Pitching Matchup
TBR
Joe Boyle
vs
MIN
Bailey Ober
Win Probability
| Source | TBR | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 42.4% | 57.6% |
| Simulation only | 45.5% | 54.5% |
| Elo ratings | 39.3% | 60.7% |
| Market (implied) | 49.3% | 50.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TBR avg runs
4.5
MIN avg runs
4.5
Avg total
8.9
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TBR wins, Positive = MIN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TBR | 6.5% | 10.9% | 12.0% | 14.0% | 12.8% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 7.2% | 5.6% | 3.4% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| MIN | 5.5% | 9.2% | 12.7% | 14.4% | 13.6% | 12.7% | 10.1% | 7.5% | 5.3% | 3.8% | 2.2% | 1.2% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TBR
- Yandy Díaz
- Jonathan Aranda
- Jake Fraley
- Junior Caminero
- Cedric Mullins
- Nick Fortes
- Ben Williamson
- Chandler Simpson
- Carson Williams
MIN
- Kody Clemens
- Byron Buxton
- Luke Keaschall
- Matt Wallner
- Josh Bell
- Ryan Jeffers
- Trevor Larnach
- Royce Lewis
- Brooks Lee
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.07
HR: 0.93
BB: 1.06
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
36°F
Wind: 10 mph cross
Elo Ratings
TBR: 1413
MIN: 1464
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TBR | MIN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -104 | -112 |
| Bovada | -108 | -112 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -108 | -112 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |
Model Analysis
MIN is the better team by Elo and the sim confirms it — the market isn't giving them enough credit. Bailey Ober toes the rubber against Joe Boyle. Cold temps suppress the bats.