BAL
52%
@
April 3, 2026
PIT
48%
Pitching Matchup
BAL
Kyle Bradish
vs
PIT
Mitch Keller
Win Probability
| Source | BAL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 51.6% | 48.4% |
| Simulation only | 43.2% | 56.8% |
| Elo ratings | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| Market (implied) | 53.3% | 46.7% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BAL avg runs
4.5
PIT avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.2
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BAL wins, Positive = PIT wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 6.5% | 10.8% | 12.7% | 13.0% | 13.0% | 10.9% | 10.0% | 6.8% | 5.8% | 3.9% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
| PIT | 4.6% | 8.6% | 12.2% | 13.4% | 13.7% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 2.9% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Pete Alonso
- Adley Rutschman
- Samuel Basallo
- Tyler O'Neill
- Colton Cowser
- Coby Mayo
- Blaze Alexander
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Marcell Ozuna
- Ryan O'Hearn
- 804606
- Spencer Horwitz
- Nick Gonzales
- Henry Davis
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.83
BB: 1.0
K: 0.92
Weather
Forecast
79°F
Wind: 11 mph out
Elo Ratings
BAL: 1515
PIT: 1421
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BAL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -124 | +106 |
| Bovada | -125 | +105 |
| BetMGM | -125 | +105 |
| DraftKings | -126 | +104 |
| Caesars | -125 | +105 |