STL
49%
@
April 3, 2026
DET
51%
ML
STL ML (+150) — 49% win, +9.5% edge
Pitching Matchup
STL
Michael McGreevy
vs
DET
Framber Valdez
Win Probability
| Source | STL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.2% | 50.8% |
| Simulation only | 45.6% | 54.4% |
| Elo ratings | 52.9% | 47.1% |
| Market (implied) | 38.6% | 61.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
STL avg runs
4.8
DET avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.6
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = STL wins, Positive = DET wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STL | 5.7% | 9.1% | 11.4% | 13.2% | 12.9% | 11.2% | 10.1% | 8.0% | 6.0% | 3.8% | 3.3% | 2.1% |
| DET | 4.7% | 8.2% | 11.7% | 12.9% | 13.3% | 12.4% | 10.4% | 8.2% | 6.0% | 4.3% | 3.1% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
STL
- JJ Wetherholt
- Iván Herrera
- Alec Burleson
- Masyn Winn
- Thomas Saggese
- Ramón Urías
- Jordan Walker
- Pedro Pagés
- Victor Scott II
DET
- Colt Keith
- Kevin McGonigle
- Gleyber Torres
- Riley Greene
- Kerry Carpenter
- Spencer Torkelson
- Dillon Dingler
- Parker Meadows
- Javier Báez
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.06
HR: 1.04
BB: 1.05
K: 0.95
Weather
Forecast
65°F
Wind: 9 mph cross
Elo Ratings
STL: 1547
DET: 1503
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | STL | DET |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +146 | -174 |
| Bovada | +149 | -181 |
| BetMGM | +145 | -175 |
| DraftKings | +149 | -181 |
| Caesars | +150 | -178 |
Model Analysis
The market has STL as a +150 underdog, but our simulation disagrees. Michael McGreevy keeps STL competitive on the mound against Framber Valdez.