TOR
63%
@
April 3, 2026
CWS
37%
RL
CWS +1.5 (+105) — 56% win, +7.7% edge
Pitching Matchup
TOR
Dylan Cease
vs
CWS
Grant Taylor
Win Probability
| Source | TOR | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 63.3% | 36.7% |
| Simulation only | 53.8% | 46.2% |
| Elo ratings | 72.8% | 27.2% |
| Market (implied) | 65.2% | 34.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
TOR avg runs
4.8
CWS avg runs
4.0
Avg total
8.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = TOR wins, Positive = CWS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TOR | 5.4% | 8.8% | 11.8% | 12.6% | 12.8% | 12.0% | 9.3% | 8.2% | 5.9% | 4.5% | 3.2% | 2.2% |
| CWS | 7.7% | 12.2% | 14.0% | 14.8% | 13.3% | 11.5% | 9.1% | 6.3% | 4.2% | 2.8% | 1.9% | 0.9% |
Lineups PROJECTED
TOR
- George Springer
- Jesús Sánchez
- Vladimir Guerrero Jr.
- Addison Barger
- Alejandro Kirk
- Daulton Varsho
- Kazuma Okamoto
- Ernie Clement
- Andrés Giménez
CWS
- Chase Meidroth
- Munetaka Murakami
- Andrew Benintendi
- Colson Montgomery
- Miguel Vargas
- Austin Hays
- Edgar Quero
- Everson Pereira
- Luisangel Acuña
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.92
BB: 1.0
K: 1.0
Weather
Forecast
42°F
Wind: 16 mph out
Elo Ratings
TOR: 1571
CWS: 1376
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | TOR | CWS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -210 | +176 |
| Bovada | -218 | +178 |
| BetMGM | -210 | +170 |
| DraftKings | -207 | +169 |
| Caesars | -210 | +175 |
Model Analysis
CWS is getting +1.5 at +105. The sim gives them a 56% chance of covering — 7.7% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.