BAL
50%
@
April 4, 2026
PIT
50%
Pitching Matchup
BAL
Shane Baz
vs
PIT
Carmen Mlodzinski
Win Probability
| Source | BAL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 49.8% | 50.2% |
| Simulation only | 43.1% | 56.9% |
| Elo ratings | 56.5% | 43.5% |
| Market (implied) | 50.2% | 49.8% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
BAL avg runs
4.4
PIT avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.1
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = BAL wins, Positive = PIT wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BAL | 6.1% | 10.8% | 12.5% | 13.8% | 13.2% | 11.4% | 9.8% | 7.5% | 5.1% | 3.3% | 2.5% | 1.7% |
| PIT | 5.2% | 9.1% | 11.7% | 13.8% | 13.1% | 12.0% | 9.9% | 7.8% | 6.3% | 4.0% | 3.0% | 1.7% |
Lineups PROJECTED
BAL
- Taylor Ward
- Gunnar Henderson
- Pete Alonso
- Adley Rutschman
- Samuel Basallo
- Tyler O'Neill
- Colton Cowser
- Coby Mayo
- Blaze Alexander
PIT
- Oneil Cruz
- Brandon Lowe
- Bryan Reynolds
- Marcell Ozuna
- Ryan O'Hearn
- Spencer Horwitz
- Konnor Griffin
- Jared Triolo
- Henry Davis
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.84
BB: 1.0
K: 0.92
Weather
Forecast
81°F
Wind: 11 mph out
Elo Ratings
BAL: 1503
PIT: 1433
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | BAL | PIT |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -110 | -106 |
| Bovada | -108 | -112 |
| BetMGM | -110 | -110 |
| DraftKings | -110 | -110 |
| Caesars | -110 | -110 |