CIN
41%
@
April 4, 2026
TEX
59%
Pitching Matchup
CIN
Rhett Lowder
vs
TEX
Kumar Rocker
Win Probability
| Source | CIN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 41.3% | 58.7% |
| Simulation only | 44.8% | 55.2% |
| Elo ratings | 37.8% | 62.2% |
| Market (implied) | 43.6% | 56.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
CIN avg runs
4.6
TEX avg runs
4.7
Avg total
9.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = CIN wins, Positive = TEX wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| CIN | 5.9% | 10.1% | 12.1% | 12.9% | 13.0% | 11.2% | 9.7% | 7.9% | 5.9% | 3.8% | 2.8% | 1.7% |
| TEX | 5.2% | 8.8% | 12.3% | 13.2% | 13.1% | 12.1% | 10.0% | 7.8% | 5.8% | 4.4% | 2.7% | 1.8% |
Lineups PROJECTED
CIN
- TJ Friedl
- Matt McLain
- Elly De La Cruz
- Sal Stewart
- Eugenio Suárez
- Spencer Steer
- Will Benson
- Tyler Stephenson
- Ke'Bryan Hayes
TEX
- Brandon Nimmo
- Wyatt Langford
- Corey Seager
- Jake Burger
- Joc Pederson
- Josh Smith
- Josh Jung
- Evan Carter
- Danny Jansen
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.95
HR: 1.07
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Roof Closed
Elo Ratings
CIN: 1467
TEX: 1529
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | CIN | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +122 | -144 |
| Bovada | +120 | -143 |
| BetMGM | +118 | -140 |
| DraftKings | +119 | -143 |
| Caesars | +118 | -140 |