LAD
60%
@
April 4, 2026
WSN
40%
RL
WSN +1.5 (+146) — 52% win, +7.0% edge
Pitching Matchup
LAD
Tyler Glasnow
vs
WSN
Jake Irvin
Win Probability
| Source | LAD | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 59.9% | 40.1% |
| Simulation only | 57.2% | 42.8% |
| Elo ratings | 62.7% | 37.3% |
| Market (implied) | 71.6% | 28.4% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
LAD avg runs
5.8
WSN avg runs
4.5
Avg total
10.3
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = LAD wins, Positive = WSN wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| LAD | 3.1% | 5.9% | 8.9% | 10.6% | 11.6% | 11.5% | 10.8% | 9.0% | 7.9% | 6.2% | 4.2% | 3.4% |
| WSN | 5.3% | 10.1% | 12.6% | 14.1% | 13.6% | 11.7% | 9.5% | 7.8% | 5.5% | 3.8% | 2.5% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
LAD
- Shohei Ohtani
- Kyle Tucker
- Mookie Betts
- Freddie Freeman
- Will Smith
- Max Muncy
- Teoscar Hernández
- Andy Pages
- Alex Freeland
WSN
- James Wood
- Luis García Jr.
- Daylen Lile
- Brady House
- CJ Abrams
- Nasim Nuñez
- José Tena
- Keibert Ruiz
- Jacob Young
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 0.98
BB: 0.95
K: 0.95
Elo Ratings
LAD: 1618
WSN: 1504
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | LAD | WSN |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -295 | +240 |
| Bovada | -280 | +225 |
| BetMGM | -275 | +220 |
| DraftKings | -308 | +244 |
| Caesars | -292 | +235 |
Model Analysis
WSN is getting +1.5 at +146. The sim gives them a 52% chance of covering — 7.0% edge. Run line bets are higher variance, but the model sees value here.