NYM
48%
@
April 4, 2026
SFG
52%
Pitching Matchup
NYM
Clay Holmes
vs
SFG
Landen Roupp
Win Probability
| Source | NYM | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 48.3% | 51.7% |
| Simulation only | 49.3% | 50.7% |
| Elo ratings | 47.2% | 52.8% |
| Market (implied) | 52.0% | 48.0% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
NYM avg runs
4.9
SFG avg runs
4.5
Avg total
9.4
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = NYM wins, Positive = SFG wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NYM | 5.1% | 8.8% | 11.7% | 12.7% | 12.6% | 11.3% | 9.9% | 8.1% | 6.2% | 4.6% | 3.2% | 2.1% |
| SFG | 5.8% | 9.7% | 12.1% | 14.0% | 13.7% | 12.1% | 9.5% | 7.7% | 5.3% | 3.9% | 2.5% | 1.4% |
Lineups PROJECTED
NYM
- Francisco Lindor
- Juan Soto
- Bo Bichette
- Luis Robert Jr.
- Brett Baty
- Mark Vientos
- Marcus Semien
- Carson Benge
- Francisco Alvarez
SFG
- Willy Adames
- Rafael Devers
- Luis Arraez
- Matt Chapman
- Jung Hoo Lee
- Heliot Ramos
- Harrison Bader
- Patrick Bailey
- Jerar Encarnacion
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 0.91
HR: 0.82
BB: 0.86
K: 0.9
Elo Ratings
NYM: 1457
SFG: 1453
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | NYM | SFG |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -118 | +100 |
| Bovada | -119 | -101 |
| BetMGM | -120 | +100 |
| DraftKings | -120 | +100 |
| Caesars | -120 | +100 |