SDP
45%
@
April 4, 2026
BOS
55%
Pitching Matchup
SDP
Randy Vasquez
vs
BOS
Connelly Early
Win Probability
| Source | SDP | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 45.2% | 54.8% |
| Simulation only | 47.3% | 52.7% |
| Elo ratings | 43.0% | 57.0% |
| Market (implied) | 42.4% | 57.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SDP avg runs
5.0
BOS avg runs
4.8
Avg total
9.8
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SDP wins, Positive = BOS wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SDP | 4.4% | 8.8% | 11.1% | 12.7% | 12.0% | 11.5% | 10.5% | 8.0% | 6.8% | 4.7% | 3.1% | 2.3% |
| BOS | 4.7% | 8.3% | 11.7% | 13.7% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 10.1% | 8.3% | 6.4% | 4.2% | 2.6% | 1.5% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SDP
- Fernando Tatis Jr.
- Xander Bogaerts
- Manny Machado
- Jackson Merrill
- Miguel Andujar
- Ramón Laureano
- Ty France
- Jake Cronenworth
- Freddy Fermin
BOS
- Roman Anthony
- Trevor Story
- Jarren Duran
- Willson Contreras
- Wilyer Abreu
- Caleb Durbin
- Marcelo Mayer
- Carlos Narváez
- Ceddanne Rafaela
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.05
HR: 0.8
BB: 1.0
K: 0.93
Weather
Forecast
37°F
Wind: 12 mph cross
Elo Ratings
SDP: 1464
BOS: 1489
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SDP | BOS |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | +122 | -144 |
| Bovada | +128 | -153 |
| BetMGM | +125 | -150 |
| DraftKings | +123 | -149 |
| Caesars | +130 | -155 |