SEA
56%
@
April 4, 2026
LAA
44%
Pitching Matchup
SEA
Emerson Hancock
vs
LAA
Jack Kochanowicz
Win Probability
| Source | SEA | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| Model (blended) | 56.0% | 44.0% |
| Simulation only | 53.4% | 46.6% |
| Elo ratings | 58.7% | 41.3% |
| Market (implied) | 59.4% | 40.6% |
Simulation Results
Based on 10,000 Monte Carlo simulations
SEA avg runs
5.3
LAA avg runs
4.4
Avg total
9.7
Win Margin Distribution
Negative = SEA wins, Positive = LAA wins
Run Scoring Distribution
| Runs | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 | 6 | 7 | 8 | 9 | 10 | 11 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SEA | 4.3% | 8.0% | 10.3% | 11.8% | 12.0% | 11.3% | 10.3% | 8.5% | 6.5% | 5.1% | 4.0% | 2.7% |
| LAA | 6.0% | 10.4% | 12.9% | 14.2% | 12.9% | 12.0% | 9.8% | 7.0% | 5.1% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 1.6% |
Lineups PROJECTED
SEA
- Brendan Donovan
- Cal Raleigh
- Julio Rodríguez
- Josh Naylor
- Randy Arozarena
- Luke Raley
- Dominic Canzone
- J.P. Crawford
- Cole Young
LAA
- Zach Neto
- Mike Trout
- Nolan Schanuel
- Jorge Soler
- Yoán Moncada
- Jo Adell
- Josh Lowe
- Logan O'Hoppe
- Oswald Peraza
Park Factors & Conditions
Park Factors
Runs: 1.0
HR: 1.09
BB: 1.0
K: 1.05
Weather
Forecast
84°F
Wind: 10 mph in
Elo Ratings
SEA: 1533
LAA: 1448
Sportsbook Odds
| Book | SEA | LAA |
|---|---|---|
| FanDuel | -156 | +132 |
| Bovada | -159 | +133 |
| BetMGM | -160 | +135 |
| DraftKings | -168 | +139 |
| Caesars | -165 | +140 |